I had the good fortune of speaking on a panel at the
Symantec Government Symposium on Tuesday of last week, and just previous to my own slot I was listening to
Melissa Hathaway describe the work that has been done on the President's 60 day evaluation of national cybersecurity. I know that much has already been written on the subject ( the document is
here ), so I won't belabor that topic.
I think it
is worth mentioning one of the painfully overused metaphors that came from the audience, because it is so common, and so frequent, that it has become, for me, like the incessant sound of my GPS when it disagrees with my choices, (
"Please return to the highlighted route") over and over and over and ... Sorry, I digress.
The audience member was asking about the steps that the government and the private/public partnership were to take, and whether Ms. Hathaway thought that these measures would enable us to avoid ( wait for it...wait for it ) the
Cyber Pearl Harbor
...Ugh...
This unfortunate turn of phrase is often, and evidently
inaccurately, attributed to
Mr. Richard Clarke. It is most often used to conjure up the vision of a cyber attack which can be mounted at a monumental scale, can be executed with incapacitating speed, and can be accomplished with near total secrecy. It made sense, when we first started thinking about cyber security in this more holistic manner back in the mid-1990's, as a hook to get people emotionally involved in the threats that so many of us could see lurking in our oncoming Internetwork-ed future. In time, though, the cyber sneak attack became weak tea, as the new generation of physical sneak attack rocked us on 9/11. Recently, though, through periods of foreign conflict and economic crisis, we are getting more more insight into possible venues for incursion and into likely footprints left by cyber scouts, and now we have begun to hear the chant again.
Cyber Pearl Harbor
...Ugh...
So what is so bad about describing a potentially widespread cyber attack as a "Cyber Pearl Harbor"? What would cause me to sit here and write about a turn of phrase that has become as common as "irregardless" and "I could care less"? For starters it is confusing, and for finishers it communicates little to the listener. It misrepresents the nature of the threat, the likely damages and the probable agents, and worst: the role that so many should play in reducing the probability of an attack's success. Here is what I mean:
Pearl Harbor versus Cyber Attack : The nature of the threat
The attack on Pearl Harbor was a surprise attack on the US Naval Base at Pearl Harbor Hawaii in 1941. Over 350 Japanese aircraft destroyed 11 vessels and killed over 2,400 US personnel, pulling the US of the time out of its isolationist position and into World War II. A day that will live in infamy. But it is important to understand that Pearl Harbor, while a surprise, was a largely isolated event, both physically and politically. Hawaii is roughly 2,000 miles from the mainland US, and in 1941, it was still almost 20 years from becoming the 50th state in the Union. So the attack and the threat were largely limited to that area, and to the US Navy in the region, and the attack's role in catalyzing public opinion to go to war reflected an acknowledgement that such an act could likely lead to others more directly threatening to the country as a whole.
This reality, and the concern about future incursions, are in marked contrast with the object and results of a likely cyber attack. The nature of internetworking, and one of its design objectives, is the geographic insensitivity of its hosts. A well-formed attack would be unlikely to be limited to one region, could more easily be expected to focus on one industry (energy, finance, government, telecommunications), or on the privacy, availability, and integrity of all information that is commonly passed between various constituents on the network. The threat is very different because while it is possible that there would be physical events and damage resulting, it is more likely that the effects would be pervasive among many or most citizens, and that they could be very long lasting and irrecoverable. This leads us to the next disconnect in the Pearl Harbor vs. Cybertastrophe debate, the likely damages and probable agents.
Pearl Harbor versus Cyber Attack : Damages and Damagers
There is no question that the loss of life and strategic resources in the Pearl Harbor attack made it a very successful initial gambit on the part of 1940's Japan. At the same time, and in conjunction with Japan's signing of the XXX support treaty with the Axis countries of Germany and Italy, it pulled the otherwise sidelined US into the World War II conflict. Japan, while a fortified and well-trained island nation, was located in the same place that it had been for hundreds of years. It was a country, with a government, and a military, and boundaries, buildings, and citizens. Its attack on Pearl Harbor invited retaliation, and that retaliation would be focused on its homeland, its people, and its infrastructure. The damages from Pearl Harbor were very visible and very real, but so were the flags and followers of Japan.
The damage from a cyber attack is unlikely to be so easy to bound, visualize, and measure, and if done well, the attackers can cloak themselves in high-grade anonymity unbreakable by today's technologies. The attacks themselves can be in real time, scheduled, or triggered. They can be executed from local, remote, stolen, hijacked, or simply innocent systems. Their countries of origin can be anywhere, including on our own shores, and many styles can be executed by automatons, running mindlessly in background processes as they wait for the signal to launch.
The actual damage itself can be much more insidious than straightforward destruction. Minor corruptions and losses can lead to a deterioration of confidence in financial, governmental, and medical services. Alterations can be subtle enough to escape normal scrutiny, but can act in concert to create massive disruption. Our nation's accelerated adoption of all things technical has made us flexible, advanced, and productive, but it has also left us most vulnerable to attacks which would co-opt those same technical elements. Which leads us to the worst effect of considering Cyber threat as Pearl Harbor threat; a lack of involvement and interest from citizens and industry in fundamentally improving security and managing cyber risk.
Pearl Harbor versus Cyber Attack : Who Lets the Enemy In?
Whether Pearl Harbor or the tragedy of 9/11, our national response has been largely the same: "How can We have let this happen?", where We means the government and not the actual We, the People, and this means major damages that take us by surprise. It is, in the case of these physical attacks, natural to look outside of ourselves for protection. Most of us do not own the destroyers and aircraft carriers that carrier our sailors and marines to war, and we are definitely discouraged from stocking up on the type of anti-aircraft weaponry that would have made us marginally useful in defending Pearl Harbor. That is the job of Government.
This is where Cyber Security, and protection from much of the Cyber threat, takes a sharp left turn from discussions of Pearl Harbor. We (the private citizen, corporate executive, IT professional, We) must be part of defending against cyber attack. Explosions of bots on unpatched machines, pathetically weak passwords and wide open services, software written without sufficient care for security or privacy or integrity, these are all areas where people, not Government, must step up. We cannot expect all citizens to be security experts, but we need to take the time to acknowledge and then empower a basic water level raising for all, so that we do not leave ourselves so obviously and easily exposed. The measures are not that difficult, but they are purely impossible to mandate from on high, we must accommodate them ourselves.
Blah Blah Blah, So What?
Many of you, while familiar with my frequent riffs on odd topics, might think that this is a lot of writing to blow on a random audience guy's question, but I don't think it is. Our perceptions of reality are driven almost entirely, by our experiences and our history. We are all familiar with Pearl Harbor, or 9/11, at least in their broadest brush strokes. When we accept the Pearl Harbor metaphor, or perpetuate the thinking that cyber attacks will look like that, we shape our thinking to view protection as protection against an event. We view our defenses as defenses against an enemy. These assumptions, and the mitigation that they will engender, are just wrong.
If an attack comes, it will seep into our system like a slow acting poison, and we will not recognize it, or know to act against it, until we are already deep within the control of it. If an attack comes, we will not find ourselves face to face with an attacker ready to do battle, but with a dark and gauzy space where we can only strike at shadows and hope by luck to hit something. Protection against these threats will come only with awareness and responsibility, and a sense among all of us, that we are responsible for our own protection. If each of us, as individuals, and businesses, and technologists, take this role seriously, then the odds of our success are enormous, because our enemy in this case is much more like a virus or an illness than a country, and our best and only hope is to inoculate ourselves.